As America traverses the post-pandemic political scene, the fragments of the crisis linger, shaping political sentiments in unprecedented ways. The connection between economic performance and political fortunes has frayed, presenting a puzzle that needs to follow traditional wisdom.
In the aftermath of past crises, economic woes often dictated electoral outcomes. However, recent years have witnessed a disconnect between economic indicators and public sentiment, notably during the tenure of President Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and now Joe Biden. Despite economic improvement, approval ratings fail to reflect these gains, leaving political strategists scratching their heads.
The anomaly is uniquely American. While in Europe, economic sentiment remains closely tied to government favorability, the U.S. charts a different course. The polarization of American politics, with Democrats and Republicans more ideologically divided than ever, blurs the lines between economic realities and political allegiance. In this environment, one’s political identity often shapes perceptions of economic well-being, rather than the other way around.
Even apparent correlations between economic assessments and presidential approval are challenged. Analysis by political scientist Brian Schaffner reveals a mirage, where critics of President Biden are more likely to perceive economic hardship, irrespective of their actual circumstances.
The consequences are profound. With economic sentiment failing to sway political loyalties, the incentive for sound economic policy diminishes. The U.S., boasting enviable GDP growth and job creation, finds itself in a paradox where economic success fails to translate into political capital.
Contrast this with Europe, where economic sentiment transcends partisan lines. In countries like Germany, supporters of opposing parties share similar economic evaluations, fostering a more rational political landscape that rewards competent governance.
The implications for American democracy are dire. The erosion of trust in institutions, exacerbated by the mishandling of the pandemic, fuels skepticism and disillusionment. Philip D. Zelikow, former executive director of the 9/11 Commission, warns that the government’s failure to address the pandemic’s root causes amplifies distrust, potentially bolstering candidates like Donald Trump, who exploit perceptions of a rigged system.
Indeed, the pandemic’s specter looms large over the political landscape. Despite receding from public discourse, its legacy endures, shaping attitudes toward government, democracy, and the nation’s direction. Lingering trauma manifests in low confidence in institutions and heightened fears of political violence.
President Biden’s administration, despite legislative victories, needs to work on garnering recognition for its achievements. Programs vital to daily life, such as child tax credits and student loan forgiveness, falter amidst political gridlock, leaving many disillusioned.
Alida Garcia, a Democratic strategist and mother, epitomizes the exhaustion felt by many. The pandemic’s neglect of mothers and families fuels her frustration, compounded by the perceived inaction of political allies.
Julie Fry, a public defender, echoes a broader sentiment of disappointment. The failure to prioritize children’s needs during the pandemic underscores a deeper crisis of leadership, fueling her resentment toward politicians from both parties.
As America grapples with the fallout of the pandemic, the road ahead remains uncertain. While economic prosperity may elude political capture, the resilience of American democracy hinges on its ability to bridge ideological divides and restore trust in governance.
